Deal Factory. Lechner Altieri McMahon

5 Prospects. $2.9B+ Reachable Liquidity

4 PPLI-verified · 3 warm paths identified · Greenwich / Boston / Manhattan

Prospects

4 PPLI-verified

Total Liquidity

$2.9B+

Net investable $1.2B+

Avg PPLI Score

Range 79-94

Windows Open

1 closing (Goldsmith)

Prospect Intelligence5 TARGETS

Martine Rothblatt

Chair & CEO · UTHR · $25B

$1.1BPPLI 94C110 MO WINDOW

$735M option exercise at 47.75% marginal. SLAT + PPLI. She has a JD. lead attorney-to-attorney.

Mark Goldsmith

Founder & CEO · RVMD · $18.8B

$242-407MPPLI 91C1CLOSING

54.1% CA rate. IDGT freeze before Phase 3. 2002 trust needs upgrade. $66M savings.

Herriot Tabuteau

Founder & CEO · AXSM · $7.5B

$1.25BPPLI 87C1UES MANHATTAN

Selling $160M/yr via 10b5-1. Goldman alum. PDUFA Apr 30. 350bps structural alpha.

Oliver T. Moses

Managing Partner · WindRose Health

~$110MPPLI 82C2NYC

$3.7B healthcare PE. Fund V carry exits. Dynasty trust + PPLI.

Andrew Robbins

CEO · Cogent Bio · Cambridge

$100-200MPPLI 79C2BOSTON

Dual PDUFA buyout target. Terry's territory. Plant now, harvest at acquisition.

L5D Prospect Intelligence SamplesLEAVE-BEHINDS

Chesapeake Energy Corp

Energy · Natural Gas · Post-Merger · OKC

$108B PEAKC1WINDOW OPENILIT + PPLI

Post-merger equity concentration. $7.4B Southwestern merger closed Oct 2024. 12-18 month structural planning window. 41.75% marginal rate. 3 warm paths identified.

SOP 1. Biotech Liquidity Signal CaptureACTIVE

✓

Signal Detection

SEC EDGAR 10b5-1 filings, FDA PDUFA calendar, ClinicalTrials.gov Phase 3, M&A rumors, PE fund vintages

5 SIGNALS

✓

Target Qualification

Identity resolution, holdings verification, tax exposure modeling, $100M+ gate, PPLI pre-screen

5 QUALIFIED

✓

Tri-City Routing

Greenwich (social) · Boston (analytical + Terry) · Manhattan (institutional close)

ROUTED

✓

Intelligence Packages

Full Cortex packages for Rothblatt, Goldsmith, Tabuteau. PPLI + behavioral + warm path

3 READY

Handoff to Nick

Print briefs, mobile talk-tracks, schedule prep calls

SOP 2. Warm Path Activation3 PATHS READY

✓

Shadow Relationship Discovery

Affinity lattice, community arbitrage, kingmaker identification, trust triangle mapping

5 MAPS

✓

Path Ranking (CARVER)

Tabuteau 8.1 (Goldman) · Moses 7.8 (MS PE) · Robbins 7.5 (Terry) · Rothblatt 7.2 · Goldsmith 6.5

RANKED

Introduction Sequence Design

1-hop, 2-hop, and event-based sequences per target with archetype-matched scripts

Activate First Path

Contact Goldman alumni at MS re: Tabuteau introduction (highest CARVER score)

Follow-Up Checkpoints

48hr → 7d → 14d → 30d → 60d progression gates (DISCOVERY → PROPOSAL → COMMITMENT)

PENDING

SOP 3. PPLI Conversion Pipeline4 VERIFIED

✓

Actuarial Intelligence

701 V-PPLI entries analyzed: §7702, §817(h), investor control, estate planning, reform risk

SCORED

✓

Structure Selection

Rothblatt → SLAT · Goldsmith → IDGT · Tabuteau → ILIT · Moses → Dynasty Trust

MATCHED

PPLI One-Pagers

Print-ready intelligence substrate. tax math, structure recommendation, regulatory notes, window status

Pre-Meeting Prep

3 discovery questions, objection prep, "What If" scenario, printed materials

Post-Meeting Conversion

Same-day follow-up, detailed proposal, carrier introduction, structure selection meeting

PENDING

Priority Mission. Week of April 7

Nick Altieri

Morgan Stanley PWM · Greenwich / Boston / Manhattan · $8B+ AUM

"Do we have anyone who came from Goldman Sachs healthcare banking? I need an introduction to Herriot Tabuteau at Axsome."

Monday. Internal MS ask (phone or email)

Goldman Sachs Alumni at MS · KINGMAKER

Unlocks: Tabuteau ($1.25B) · CARVER 8.1 · Goldman healthcare IB network

GS alum introduces Nick to Tabuteau: "Nick works with biotech founders on pre-liquidity planning. He's an estate attorney by training."

This week. Introduction via email or phone

Terry McMahon · BRIDGE

25yr allocation network · Boston biotech corridor · Unlocks: Robbins (COGT, Cambridge)

"Terry, do you know anyone at Fairmount Funds or in the Cambridge biotech CEO community? Looking for a path to Andrew Robbins at Cogent Bio."

This week. Partner conversation

Herriot Tabuteau · $1.25B TARGET

CEO, Axsome · Upper East Side · Goldman alum · PDUFA Apr 30 · PPLI 87

Schedule post-PDUFA meeting (May 2026). Opening: "Your 10b5-1 is generating $160M/year. The structure matters more than the allocation."

Post-PDUFA (May). 30 min, Manhattan office

Network Intelligence5 TARGETS · 3 BRIDGES

Herriot Tabuteau

Target · $1.25B · Manhattan

PPLI 878.1 CARVER1 HOP

Via Goldman Sachs alumni at MS → highest-probability warm path

Martine Rothblatt

Target · $1.1B · NJ/NYC

PPLI 947.2 CARVER1-2 HOP

Via MS UTHR coverage or T&E attorney peer (ACTEC)

Mark Goldsmith

Target · $242-407M · Bay Area

PPLI 916.5 CARVER2 HOP

Via Princeton alumni network (NYC/Greenwich finance)

Oliver Moses

Target · ~$110M · NYC PE

PPLI 827.8 CARVER1 HOP

Via MS PE/alternatives desk. Fund VII placement connection

Andrew Robbins

Target · $100-200M · Cambridge

PPLI 797.5 CARVER1 HOP

Via Terry McMahon → Boston biotech allocator network

CSOP-002 Behavioral Intelligence Profile ENGAGE

75.4

COMPOSITE SCORE

Oliver T. Moses HVT

Founding Managing Partner, WindRose Health Investors · $3.68B AUM. Fund V carry in active exit window. Fund VII closed $2.6B oversubscribed Dec 2025. Dynasty Trust + PPLI structure indicated. Composite 75.4 clears ENGAGE threshold (>=70). Risk 28 clears safety gate (<=50). LP-to-GP warm path CARVER 8.5 — highest in deal.

6-Dimension Scoring MatrixCSOP-002

Communication

77w: 15.4

Direct, ROI-framed, institutional-grade. Lead with carry tax architecture, not product. Quantify the leakage before naming the solution.

Influence

86w: 21.5

High LP network centrality. GP identity = legacy builder. Peer-referenced decisions. TAA alignment 0.88 via Fund VII oversubscription signaling.

Behavioral

82w: 16.4

Dominant-Conscientious (DISC: high D, moderate C). PE operator pattern: fast pattern-matcher, deliberate on structuring. Founder-operator identity.

Analytical

74w: 11.1

ACH applied, 2 competing hypotheses. Red team: risk Oliver views PPLI as already covered by existing family office. Mitigant: Dynasty Trust gap confirmed.

Operational

82w: 8.2

F3EAD: FIND complete, FIX ready. Fund V exit window active NOW. 12-24 month carry distribution cycle. Urgency is structural, not manufactured.

Risk

28w: 2.8

Backfire VERY LOW. PE GPs are professional risk allocators. Structured product familiarity high. No compliance friction (not a registered rep).

OCEAN Adapted Profile7.3 COMPOSITE

Competitive Drive

Status Sensitivity

Dominance

Information Appetite

Risk Tolerance

Ego Vulnerability

Meta-Program ProfileNLPsyOp

Toward / Away Toward 0.80

Internal / External Internal 0.80

Options / Procedures Options 0.70

Rep System Visual/Kinesthetic 0.75

Chunk Size Large-to-Small 0.85

Cialdini Compliance MapINFLUENCE VECTORS

ReciprocityHIGH

Deliver Fund V exit portfolio health analysis — unsolicited. No pitch. Oliver will feel obligated to respond to intelligence he cannot produce himself.

Social ProofHIGH

PE GPs are peer-referenced. Reference other healthcare PE GPs using carry tax deferral architecture (without naming). LP-to-GP intro path amplifies credibility.

AuthorityHIGH

Lead with graph-scale healthcare coverage (242 PE firms tracked). Intelligence lineage from OSINT/SOCMINT doctrine. Not a product pitch — a capability demonstration.

CommitmentMED

Secure review of Fund V exit analysis first. Consistency principle: once he engages with the data, follow-up meeting is natural progression.

ScarcityMED

Fund V exit window is a REAL constraint — 12-24 months. Frame urgency as structural, not sales. "The window that defines the outcome is the carry distribution cycle."

LikingLOW

Substance over rapport. GP identity is performance-first. Do not lead socially — lead with numbers that demonstrate the carry leakage problem.

Engagement Strategy — Oliver T. Moses

Approach Vector

LP-to-GP introduction via MS PE/Alternatives desk (CARVER 7.8) or direct LP introduction (CARVER 8.5 — highest in deal). Lead artifact: WindRose Fund V exit portfolio analysis demonstrating carry tax leakage at 38.6% combined rate.

Frame as: "Oliver, Fund V exits are generating carry at 38.6% combined. I ran the architecture gap. You're losing the equivalent of 2 full fund years to tax drag. Worth 20 minutes."

Initial. NYC (LP relationship channel or MS PE desk)

Dynasty Trust Gap — Core Wedge

Moses is already Dynasty Trust-oriented. The wedge is that a Dynasty Trust alone does not solve the carry tax problem at distribution — it requires a PPLI chassis underneath. Current structure almost certainly captures estate efficiency but not income tax deferral on carry.

Frame as: "The Dynasty Trust captures the transfer tax. The PPLI captures the income tax. You need both running concurrently or the carry distributions compound at full rate."

Meeting 1. Do not pitch PPLI in outreach — establish the gap first.

Key Trigger Phrases

"carry distribution tax deferral" "Fund V exit window" "dynasty trust chassis — the carry layer" "38.6% combined rate on GP distributions" "what your current structure cannot defer"

Avoid

Generic PPLI product pitch Retail wealth management framing Overstating urgency (he knows PE timelines) Cold outreach without LP-to-GP intro Unattributed tax rate claims

CSOP-002 NLPsyOp Decision Rules · Generated 2026-04-10 · Source: state/pwm-deal-factory/oliver-moses/behavioral_profile_csop002.json

Period	Liquidity ($M)	Cash ($M)	Cash Equiv ($M)	Borrowing Base ($M)	Undrawn ($M)
Q3 2024	$107,976	$1,120	$1,044	$3,500	$3,500
Q4 2024	$34,278	$395	$317	$2,500	$2,500
Q1 2025	$37,478	$427	$349	$2,500	$2,500

Period

Liquidity ($M)

Cash ($M)

Cash Equiv ($M)

Borrowing Base ($M)

Undrawn ($M)

Q3 2024

$107,976

$1,120

$1,044

$3,500

Q4 2024

$34,278

$395

$317

$2,500

Q1 2025

$37,478

$427

$349

$2,500

PPLI Criterion	Assessment	Notes
Minimum Investable Threshold	MEETS ($10M+)	Executive equity positions at this scale typically exceed $10M minimum
Tax Exposure Severity	HIGH	41.75% combined marginal rate (OK + federal); concentrated equity amplifies exposure
Time Horizon	ADEQUATE	12-18 month pre-event window allows structure establishment
Liquidity Complexity	MODERATE	Publicly traded equity (post-lockup) is liquid; but Rule 144 volume limits apply
Estate Planning Need	HIGH	Post-merger equity concentration creates estate tax exposure at current valuations
Regulatory Compliance	REQUIRES REVIEW	SEC insider status, 10b5-1 plan coordination with PPLI chassis

PPLI Criterion

Assessment

Notes

Minimum Investable Threshold

MEETS ($10M+)

Executive equity positions at this scale typically exceed $10M minimum

Tax Exposure Severity

HIGH

41.75% combined marginal rate (OK + federal); concentrated equity amplifies exposure

Time Horizon

ADEQUATE

12-18 month pre-event window allows structure establishment

Liquidity Complexity

MODERATE

Publicly traded equity (post-lockup) is liquid; but Rule 144 volume limits apply

Estate Planning Need

HIGH

Post-merger equity concentration creates estate tax exposure at current valuations

Regulatory Compliance

REQUIRES REVIEW

SEC insider status, 10b5-1 plan coordination with PPLI chassis

Factor	Confidence	Source
Liquidity Data	HIGH	Enverus Capitalize, 3 quarters (Q3 2024, Q4 2024, Q1 2025)
Merger Details	HIGH	SEC Form 8-K, public filings
Tax Exposure Model	HIGH	Oklahoma Tax Commission, IRS 2025 tables
Executive Identity	MODERATE	Proxy filings confirm C-suite; specific holdings require Form 4 verification
PPLI Suitability	PRELIMINARY	Talyx Actuarial Layer (701 V-PPLI entries); requires client-specific analysis
Warm Path Viability	MODERATE	Institutional relationship inference; MS coverage confirmation needed

Factor

Confidence

Source

Liquidity Data

HIGH

Enverus Capitalize, 3 quarters (Q3 2024, Q4 2024, Q1 2025)

Merger Details

HIGH

SEC Form 8-K, public filings

Tax Exposure Model

HIGH

Oklahoma Tax Commission, IRS 2025 tables

Executive Identity

MODERATE

Proxy filings confirm C-suite; specific holdings require Form 4 verification

PPLI Suitability

PRELIMINARY

Talyx Actuarial Layer (701 V-PPLI entries); requires client-specific analysis

Warm Path Viability

MODERATE

Institutional relationship inference; MS coverage confirmation needed

Parameter	Value	Notes
Total Option Value	~$735M	Multiple grant tranches, various strike prices
Monthly Selling Rate	>$25M/mo	Form 4 filings, Q4 2025–Q1 2026
Option Expiration	March 2027	Hard deadline — 10-month planning window remains
Combined Marginal Rate	47.75%	Federal 37% + DC 10.75% on non-qualified option income
Annual Tax Drag (est.)	~$143M+	At $300M/yr proceeds × 47.75%

Parameter

Value

Notes

Total Option Value

~$735M

Multiple grant tranches, various strike prices

Monthly Selling Rate

>$25M/mo

Form 4 filings, Q4 2025–Q1 2026

Option Expiration

March 2027

Hard deadline — 10-month planning window remains

Combined Marginal Rate

47.75%

Federal 37% + DC 10.75% on non-qualified option income

Annual Tax Drag (est.)

~$143M+

At $300M/yr proceeds × 47.75%

PPLI Criterion	Assessment	Notes
Minimum Investable Threshold	EXCEEDS	$300M+/yr option proceeds; well above any PPLI minimum
Tax Exposure Severity	CRITICAL	47.75% on non-qualified option income — highest-severity scenario in pipeline
Liquidity Complexity	LOW	10b5-1 generates predictable monthly cash — ideal PPLI premium schedule
Estate Planning Need	CRITICAL	$25B company; founder equity creates multi-generational estate exposure
Attorney Credential Match	EXCEPTIONAL	Rothblatt holds J.D. — peer-to-peer attorney entry is the correct approach
Regulatory Compliance	REQUIRES REVIEW	Section 16 officer — coordinate 10b5-1 cadence with PPLI premium funding

PPLI Criterion

Assessment

Notes

Minimum Investable Threshold

EXCEEDS

$300M+/yr option proceeds; well above any PPLI minimum

Tax Exposure Severity

CRITICAL

47.75% on non-qualified option income — highest-severity scenario in pipeline

Liquidity Complexity

LOW

10b5-1 generates predictable monthly cash — ideal PPLI premium schedule

Estate Planning Need

CRITICAL

$25B company; founder equity creates multi-generational estate exposure

Attorney Credential Match

EXCEPTIONAL

Rothblatt holds J.D. — peer-to-peer attorney entry is the correct approach

Regulatory Compliance

REQUIRES REVIEW

Section 16 officer — coordinate 10b5-1 cadence with PPLI premium funding

Factor	Confidence	Source
Option Holdings & Volume	HIGH	SEC Form 4 filings, UTHR DEF 14A proxy
Tax Exposure Model	HIGH	IRS 2025 tables, DC OTR published rates
10b5-1 Selling Cadence	HIGH	Form 4 quarterly filing pattern confirmed
Tyvaso IPF Catalyst	HIGH	UTHR IR, FDA PDUFA calendar, clinical data published
PPLI Suitability	PRELIMINARY	Talyx Actuarial Layer (701 V-PPLI entries); requires attorney review
Warm Path Viability	MODERATE	MS UTHR coverage confirmed; ACTEC introduction requires network verification

Factor

Confidence

Source

Option Holdings & Volume

HIGH

SEC Form 4 filings, UTHR DEF 14A proxy

Tax Exposure Model

HIGH

IRS 2025 tables, DC OTR published rates

10b5-1 Selling Cadence

HIGH

Form 4 quarterly filing pattern confirmed

Tyvaso IPF Catalyst

HIGH

UTHR IR, FDA PDUFA calendar, clinical data published

PPLI Suitability

PRELIMINARY

Talyx Actuarial Layer (701 V-PPLI entries); requires attorney review

Warm Path Viability

MODERATE

MS UTHR coverage confirmed; ACTEC introduction requires network verification

Parameter	Value	Notes
Current Holdings	570,000 shares (est.)	Form 4 filings; subject to ongoing 10b5-1 activity
Current Market Value	~$242M	At Q1 2026 RVMD pricing
M&A Scenario Value	~$407M	At Merck $30B M&A interest premium (est. 40–70% takeout premium)
CA Combined Marginal Rate	54.1%	Federal 37% + CA 13.3% + NIIT 3.8% — highest in pipeline
Estate Tax (40%)	$96M+	On $242M position inside a revocable trust with zero estate protection

Parameter

Value

Notes

Current Holdings

570,000 shares (est.)

Form 4 filings; subject to ongoing 10b5-1 activity

Current Market Value

~$242M

At Q1 2026 RVMD pricing

M&A Scenario Value

~$407M

At Merck $30B M&A interest premium (est. 40–70% takeout premium)

CA Combined Marginal Rate

54.1%

Federal 37% + CA 13.3% + NIIT 3.8% — highest in pipeline

Estate Tax (40%)

$96M+

On $242M position inside a revocable trust with zero estate protection

PPLI Criterion	Assessment	Notes
Minimum Investable Threshold	EXCEEDS	$242M+ concentrated position; well above PPLI minimums
Tax Exposure Severity	CRITICAL	54.1% California combined rate — highest state-level drag in pipeline
IDGT Freeze Urgency	IMMEDIATE	Phase 3 data H1 2026 closes the window — weeks remaining
Estate Planning Need	CRITICAL	2002 revocable trust = zero estate protection on $242M position
Age-Appropriate Urgency	HIGH	63-year-old founder; estate planning deferral is not a viable strategy
Regulatory Compliance	REQUIRES REVIEW	Insider status; Form 4 filings; coordinate IDGT transfer with counsel

PPLI Criterion

Assessment

Notes

Minimum Investable Threshold

EXCEEDS

$242M+ concentrated position; well above PPLI minimums

Tax Exposure Severity

CRITICAL

54.1% California combined rate — highest state-level drag in pipeline

IDGT Freeze Urgency

IMMEDIATE

Phase 3 data H1 2026 closes the window — weeks remaining

Estate Planning Need

CRITICAL

2002 revocable trust = zero estate protection on $242M position

Age-Appropriate Urgency

HIGH

63-year-old founder; estate planning deferral is not a viable strategy

Regulatory Compliance

REQUIRES REVIEW

Insider status; Form 4 filings; coordinate IDGT transfer with counsel

Factor	Confidence	Source
Equity Holdings	HIGH	SEC Form 4 filings, RVMD DEF 14A proxy
Tax Exposure Model	HIGH	CA FTB 2025 rates, IRS tables, NIIT confirmed
2002 Trust Status	MODERATE	Proxy references trust; full structure requires attorney review
Phase 3 Timeline	HIGH	RVMD IR guidance, ClinicalTrials.gov enrollment status
IDGT Savings Model	PRELIMINARY	Based on §7520 rate 5.0%; requires client-specific attorney modeling
M&A Scenario	MODERATE	Merck public statement of interest; premium estimate is market-consensus range

Factor

Confidence

Source

Equity Holdings

HIGH

SEC Form 4 filings, RVMD DEF 14A proxy

Tax Exposure Model

HIGH

CA FTB 2025 rates, IRS tables, NIIT confirmed

2002 Trust Status

MODERATE

Proxy references trust; full structure requires attorney review

Phase 3 Timeline

HIGH

RVMD IR guidance, ClinicalTrials.gov enrollment status

IDGT Savings Model

PRELIMINARY

Based on §7520 rate 5.0%; requires client-specific attorney modeling

M&A Scenario

MODERATE

Merck public statement of interest; premium estimate is market-consensus range

Parameter	Value	Notes
Annual 10b5-1 Volume	$160M/yr	$40M/quarter confirmed via Form 4 filings
Cumulative Proceeds (est.)	$320M+	Running 2+ years at current pace
NY Combined Marginal Rate	~50.9%	Federal 37% + NY state 10.9% + NYC 3.88% (UES Manhattan)
Annual Tax Drag	~$81M/yr	At $160M × 50.9% combined rate
PPLI Alpha Equivalent	350bps/yr	Talyx actuarial model vs. taxable account at 7% return

Parameter

Value

Notes

Annual 10b5-1 Volume

$160M/yr

$40M/quarter confirmed via Form 4 filings

Cumulative Proceeds (est.)

$320M+

Running 2+ years at current pace

NY Combined Marginal Rate

~50.9%

Federal 37% + NY state 10.9% + NYC 3.88% (UES Manhattan)

Annual Tax Drag

~$81M/yr

At $160M × 50.9% combined rate

PPLI Alpha Equivalent

350bps/yr

Talyx actuarial model vs. taxable account at 7% return

PPLI Criterion	Assessment	Notes
Minimum Investable Threshold	EXCEEDS	$160M/yr in systematic proceeds; well above PPLI minimum
Tax Exposure Severity	HIGH	50.9% NY combined rate (federal + NY state + NYC); UES domicile confirmed
Proceeds Predictability	HIGH	10b5-1 plan generates $40M/quarter — ideal PPLI premium modeling
Estate Planning Need	HIGH	$7.5B company; founder equity creates substantial estate exposure
Sophistication Level	VERY HIGH	Goldman / SAC background — will engage with quantitative structuring analysis
Regulatory Compliance	REQUIRES REVIEW	Section 16 officer; 10b5-1 plan coordination with PPLI premium schedule

PPLI Criterion

Assessment

Notes

Minimum Investable Threshold

EXCEEDS

$160M/yr in systematic proceeds; well above PPLI minimum

Tax Exposure Severity

HIGH

50.9% NY combined rate (federal + NY state + NYC); UES domicile confirmed

Proceeds Predictability

HIGH

10b5-1 plan generates $40M/quarter — ideal PPLI premium modeling

Estate Planning Need

HIGH

$7.5B company; founder equity creates substantial estate exposure

Sophistication Level

VERY HIGH

Goldman / SAC background — will engage with quantitative structuring analysis

Regulatory Compliance

REQUIRES REVIEW

Section 16 officer; 10b5-1 plan coordination with PPLI premium schedule

Factor	Confidence	Source
10b5-1 Volume & Cadence	HIGH	SEC Form 4 filings, confirmed $40M/quarter
Tax Exposure Model	HIGH	IRS 2025 tables, NY DOT, NYC Finance published rates
PDUFA Date	HIGH	FDA PDUFA calendar, AXS-05 NDA submission confirmed
Goldman Background	HIGH	Public biography, AXSM IR, LinkedIn
PPLI Suitability	PRELIMINARY	Talyx Actuarial Layer (701 V-PPLI entries); requires attorney review
Warm Path Viability	MODERATE	Goldman-at-MS path requires internal network search to confirm

Factor

Confidence

Source

10b5-1 Volume & Cadence

HIGH

SEC Form 4 filings, confirmed $40M/quarter

Tax Exposure Model

HIGH

IRS 2025 tables, NY DOT, NYC Finance published rates

PDUFA Date

HIGH

FDA PDUFA calendar, AXS-05 NDA submission confirmed

Goldman Background

HIGH

Public biography, AXSM IR, LinkedIn

PPLI Suitability

PRELIMINARY

Talyx Actuarial Layer (701 V-PPLI entries); requires attorney review

Warm Path Viability

MODERATE

Goldman-at-MS path requires internal network search to confirm

Parameter	Value	Notes
WindRose AUM	$3.68B	Across all active fund vintages
Fund VII Close	$2.6B	December 2025, oversubscribed — confirms GP carry trajectory
Fund V Exit Window	12-24 months	Portfolio in active exit mode; carry distributions generating
Estimated Carry Rate	38.6% combined	Federal 37% + NY state + carried interest character
Composite Target Score	75.4	Clears ENGAGE threshold ≥70; Risk 28 clears safety gate ≤50

Parameter

Value

Notes

WindRose AUM

$3.68B

Across all active fund vintages

Fund VII Close

$2.6B

December 2025, oversubscribed — confirms GP carry trajectory

Fund V Exit Window

12-24 months

Portfolio in active exit mode; carry distributions generating

Estimated Carry Rate

38.6% combined

Federal 37% + NY state + carried interest character

Composite Target Score

75.4

Clears ENGAGE threshold ≥70; Risk 28 clears safety gate ≤50

PPLI Criterion	Assessment	Notes
Minimum Investable Threshold	MEETS	GP carry at $3.68B AUM; estimated carry proceeds exceed $10M minimum
Tax Exposure Severity	HIGH	38.6% combined rate on carry income; NY state adds significant drag
Estate Planning Sophistication	HIGH	Dynasty Trust orientation confirms planning awareness — not a cold education
Time Horizon	ADEQUATE	Founding GP; long residual wealth and carry horizon across Fund VII
Existing Structure Gap	CONFIRMED	Dynasty Trust alone does not defer carry income tax — PPLI chassis addresses the gap
PE GP Familiarity	HIGH	Professional risk allocator; PPLI as structured product is within GP conceptual range

PPLI Criterion

Assessment

Notes

Minimum Investable Threshold

MEETS

GP carry at $3.68B AUM; estimated carry proceeds exceed $10M minimum

Tax Exposure Severity

HIGH

38.6% combined rate on carry income; NY state adds significant drag

Estate Planning Sophistication

HIGH

Dynasty Trust orientation confirms planning awareness — not a cold education

Time Horizon

ADEQUATE

Founding GP; long residual wealth and carry horizon across Fund VII

Existing Structure Gap

CONFIRMED

Dynasty Trust alone does not defer carry income tax — PPLI chassis addresses the gap

PE GP Familiarity

HIGH

Professional risk allocator; PPLI as structured product is within GP conceptual range

Factor	Confidence	Source
AUM & Fund Close	HIGH	WindRose LP announcements, public fund documents
Fund V Exit Status	MODERATE	Inferred from vintage and typical PE exit cycle; not directly disclosed
Carry Rate Model	HIGH	IRS 2025 tables, NY state published rates
GP Carry Quantum	ESTIMATED	Based on AUM × standard 20% carry; requires fund document verification
Dynasty Trust Orientation	INFERRED	Behavioral profile inference; requires client conversation to confirm
PPLI Suitability	PRELIMINARY	Talyx Actuarial Layer (701 V-PPLI entries); requires attorney review

Factor

Confidence

Source

AUM & Fund Close

HIGH

WindRose LP announcements, public fund documents

Fund V Exit Status

MODERATE

Inferred from vintage and typical PE exit cycle; not directly disclosed

Carry Rate Model

HIGH

IRS 2025 tables, NY state published rates

GP Carry Quantum

ESTIMATED

Based on AUM × standard 20% carry; requires fund document verification

Dynasty Trust Orientation

INFERRED

Behavioral profile inference; requires client conversation to confirm

PPLI Suitability

PRELIMINARY

Talyx Actuarial Layer (701 V-PPLI entries); requires attorney review

Parameter	Value	Notes
Cash on Balance Sheet	$900M	As of most recent 10-K; extended runway through multiple PDUFA milestones
Dual Breakthrough Therapy	2 Designations	NonAdvSM + GIST — both assets in regulatory review
Primary PDUFA Date	Dec 30, 2026	NonAdvSM (non-advanced systemic mastocytosis) — 8 months
Secondary Pipeline	GIST NDA	Additional indication — further de-risked the platform
Buyout Probability (24mo)	~70%	Talyx acquisition probability model; large pharma SM/GIST coverage gaps

Parameter

Value

Notes

Cash on Balance Sheet

$900M

As of most recent 10-K; extended runway through multiple PDUFA milestones

Dual Breakthrough Therapy

2 Designations

NonAdvSM + GIST — both assets in regulatory review

Primary PDUFA Date

Dec 30, 2026

NonAdvSM (non-advanced systemic mastocytosis) — 8 months

Secondary Pipeline

GIST NDA

Additional indication — further de-risked the platform

Buyout Probability (24mo)

~70%

Talyx acquisition probability model; large pharma SM/GIST coverage gaps

PPLI Criterion	Assessment	Notes
Minimum Investable Threshold	PENDING VERIFICATION	Founder equity at COGT likely $100-200M; requires Form 4 verification
Tax Exposure Severity	HIGH	MA combined ~50.4% (federal + MA + NIIT + surtax) on acquisition proceeds
Event Probability	HIGH	70% buyout probability within 24 months — Breakthrough Therapy dual designation
Pre-Event Architecture Opportunity	HIGH	8 months pre-PDUFA; 12-24 months pre-acquisition — ideal structure-establishment window
Family Structure	PENDING VERIFICATION	Structure selection (ILIT vs. SLAT vs. IDGT) requires family composition knowledge
Warm Path Quality	HIGH	Terry McMahon's Boston network is direct; CARVER 7.5

PPLI Criterion

Assessment

Notes

Minimum Investable Threshold

PENDING VERIFICATION

Founder equity at COGT likely $100-200M; requires Form 4 verification

Tax Exposure Severity

HIGH

MA combined ~50.4% (federal + MA + NIIT + surtax) on acquisition proceeds

Event Probability

HIGH

70% buyout probability within 24 months — Breakthrough Therapy dual designation

Pre-Event Architecture Opportunity

HIGH

8 months pre-PDUFA; 12-24 months pre-acquisition — ideal structure-establishment window

Family Structure

PENDING VERIFICATION

Structure selection (ILIT vs. SLAT vs. IDGT) requires family composition knowledge

Warm Path Quality

HIGH

Terry McMahon's Boston network is direct; CARVER 7.5

Factor	Confidence	Source
Cash Position	HIGH	COGT 10-K, most recent quarterly filing
PDUFA Date (Dec 30, 2026)	HIGH	FDA PDUFA calendar, COGT IR
Breakthrough Therapy Designations	HIGH	FDA designation letters, COGT public filings
Buyout Probability Model	MODERATE	Talyx acquisition model; large pharma SM/oncology gap analysis
Equity Holdings	PENDING	Form 4 verification required — not yet completed
Family Structure	PENDING	Required for structure selection — surface via Terry introduction

Factor

Confidence

Source

Cash Position

HIGH

COGT 10-K, most recent quarterly filing

PDUFA Date (Dec 30, 2026)

HIGH

FDA PDUFA calendar, COGT IR

Breakthrough Therapy Designations

HIGH

FDA designation letters, COGT public filings

Buyout Probability Model

MODERATE

Talyx acquisition model; large pharma SM/oncology gap analysis

Equity Holdings

PENDING

Form 4 verification required — not yet completed

Family Structure

PENDING

Required for structure selection — surface via Terry introduction